diff --git a/fluxer_app/src/features/channel/components/ChannelMessages.tsx b/fluxer_app/src/features/channel/components/ChannelMessages.tsx
index 79e45c394..228e7f44e 100644
--- a/fluxer_app/src/features/channel/components/ChannelMessages.tsx
+++ b/fluxer_app/src/features/channel/components/ChannelMessages.tsx
@@ -29,6 +29,8 @@ import {
 	resolveChannelMessagesWindowStatus,
 	selectChannelMessagesFillerVisible,
 	selectChannelMessagesSpacerHeight,
+	selectChannelMessagesTailGapId,
+	selectChannelMessagesTailProbeId,
 	selectChannelMessagesWindowBar,
 } from '@app/features/messaging/state/ChannelMessagesLoadStateMachine';
 import MessageEdit from '@app/features/messaging/state/MessageEdit';
@@ -66,7 +68,9 @@ import {clsx} from 'clsx';
 import {runInAction} from 'mobx';
 import {observer, useLocalObservable} from 'mobx-react-lite';
 import type React from 'react';
-import {useCallback, useEffect, useMemo, useRef} from 'react';
+import {useCallback, useEffect, useMemo, useRef, useState} from 'react';
+
+const TAIL_PROBE_MAX_ATTEMPTS = 2;
 
 const MESSAGE_LIST_FOR_DESCRIPTOR = msg({
 	message: 'Message list for {channelName}',
@@ -167,6 +171,9 @@ export const Messages = observer(function Messages({
 	const scrollerContainerRef = useRef<HTMLDivElement | null>(null);
 	const lastStateSnapshotRef = useRef<MessagesStateSnapshot | null>(null);
 	const recoveryFetchChannelIdRef = useRef<string | null>(null);
+	const tailProbeKeyRef = useRef<string | null>(null);
+	const tailProbeAttemptsRef = useRef<{key: string; attempts: number} | null>(null);
+	const [settledTailProbeKey, setSettledTailProbeKey] = useState<string | null>(null);
 	interface MessageState extends MessagesStateSnapshot {
 		highlightedMessageId: string | null;
 		isAtBottom: boolean;
@@ -202,6 +209,17 @@ export const Messages = observer(function Messages({
 	});
 	const windowBar = selectChannelMessagesWindowBar(windowStatus);
 	const windowNeedsPage = windowStatus.needsPage;
+	const tailInput = {
+		status: windowStatus,
+		loading: safeMessages.loadingMore || safeMessages.probeLoading,
+		newestLoadedMessageId: safeMessages.last()?.id ?? null,
+		knownLatestMessageId: state.lastReadStateMessageId,
+	};
+	const tailWatermarkMessageId = state.lastReadStateMessageId;
+	const tailGapMessageId = selectChannelMessagesTailGapId(tailInput);
+	const tailProbeMessageId = selectChannelMessagesTailProbeId(tailInput);
+	const tailGapKey = tailGapMessageId == null ? null : `${tailGapMessageId}:${tailWatermarkMessageId}`;
+	const tailProbeKey = tailProbeMessageId == null ? null : `${tailProbeMessageId}:${tailWatermarkMessageId}`;
 	const canAutoAck = shouldAutoAck({
 		channelActive: allowAutoAck,
 		windowFocused: isWindowFocused,
@@ -454,6 +472,42 @@ export const Messages = observer(function Messages({
 			}
 		});
 	}, [channel.id, isGatewayConnected, selectedChannelId, windowNeedsPage, state.messageVersion]);
+	useEffect(() => {
+		if (!isGatewayConnected) {
+			tailProbeKeyRef.current = null;
+			return;
+		}
+		if (tailProbeMessageId == null || tailProbeKey == null || tailWatermarkMessageId == null) {
+			return;
+		}
+		if (selectedChannelId !== channel.id || tailProbeKeyRef.current === tailProbeKey) {
+			return;
+		}
+		tailProbeKeyRef.current = tailProbeKey;
+		void MessageCommands.fetchMessages(channel.id, null, tailProbeMessageId, MAX_MESSAGES_PER_CHANNEL, undefined, {
+			tailProbe: {
+				watermarkMessageId: tailWatermarkMessageId,
+				onSettled: (settlement) => {
+					if (settlement === 'applied') {
+						setSettledTailProbeKey(tailProbeKey);
+						return;
+					}
+					if (settlement === 'failed') {
+						const attempts =
+							tailProbeAttemptsRef.current?.key === tailProbeKey ? tailProbeAttemptsRef.current.attempts : 0;
+						if (attempts >= TAIL_PROBE_MAX_ATTEMPTS) {
+							setSettledTailProbeKey(tailProbeKey);
+							return;
+						}
+						tailProbeAttemptsRef.current = {key: tailProbeKey, attempts: attempts + 1};
+					}
+					if (tailProbeKeyRef.current === tailProbeKey) {
+						tailProbeKeyRef.current = null;
+					}
+				},
+			},
+		});
+	}, [channel.id, isGatewayConnected, selectedChannelId, tailProbeKey, tailProbeMessageId, tailWatermarkMessageId]);
 	useMessageListKeyboardNavigation({
 		containerRef: scrollManager.ref,
 		channelId: channel.id,
@@ -488,10 +542,11 @@ export const Messages = observer(function Messages({
 	}, []);
 	useEffect(() => {
 		if (!canAutoAck || !state.isAtBottom || !state.messages?.ready) return;
+		if (tailGapKey != null && settledTailProbeKey !== tailGapKey) return;
 		if (ReadStates.hasUnread(channel.id)) {
 			ReadStateCommands.ackWithStickyUnread(channel.id);
 		}
-	}, [canAutoAck, state.isAtBottom, state.messages?.ready, channel.id]);
+	}, [canAutoAck, state.isAtBottom, state.messages?.ready, tailGapKey, settledTailProbeKey, channel.id]);
 	useEffect(() => {
 		return () => {
 			const readState = ReadStates.getIfExists(channel.id);
diff --git a/fluxer_app/src/features/messaging/commands/MessageCommands.tsx b/fluxer_app/src/features/messaging/commands/MessageCommands.tsx
index b452d0242..a903c1857 100644
--- a/fluxer_app/src/features/messaging/commands/MessageCommands.tsx
+++ b/fluxer_app/src/features/messaging/commands/MessageCommands.tsx
@@ -23,6 +23,7 @@ import {MessageEditFailedModal} from '@app/features/messaging/components/alerts/
 import {MessageEditTooQuickModal} from '@app/features/messaging/components/alerts/MessageEditTooQuickModal';
 import type {Message as MessageModel} from '@app/features/messaging/models/MessagingMessage';
 import type {JumpOptions} from '@app/features/messaging/state/ChannelMessages';
+import {selectChannelMessagesTailProbeOutcome} from '@app/features/messaging/state/ChannelMessagesLoadStateMachine';
 import MessageEdit from '@app/features/messaging/state/MessageEdit';
 import MessageEditMobile from '@app/features/messaging/state/MessageEditMobile';
 import MessageQueue from '@app/features/messaging/state/MessageQueue';
@@ -115,6 +116,19 @@ export interface JumpToMessageOptions {
 
 interface FetchMessagesOptions {
 	throwOnError?: boolean;
+	tailProbe?: TailProbeContext;
+}
+
+export type TailProbeSettlement = 'applied' | 'retry' | 'failed';
+
+export interface TailProbeContext {
+	watermarkMessageId: string;
+	onSettled: (settlement: TailProbeSettlement) => void;
+}
+
+interface TailProbeEpoch {
+	loadGeneration: number;
+	jumpTicket: number;
 }
 
 interface MessagePageState {
@@ -142,11 +156,12 @@ function makeFetchKey(
 ): string {
 	const SEP = '\x1f';
 	const throwOnError = options?.throwOnError ? '1' : '0';
+	const tailProbe = options?.tailProbe ? `1.${options.tailProbe.watermarkMessageId}` : '0';
 	if (!jump) {
-		return `${channelId}${SEP}${before ?? ''}${SEP}${after ?? ''}${SEP}${limit}${SEP}${throwOnError}`;
+		return `${channelId}${SEP}${before ?? ''}${SEP}${after ?? ''}${SEP}${limit}${SEP}${throwOnError}${SEP}${tailProbe}`;
 	}
 	return (
-		`${channelId}${SEP}${before ?? ''}${SEP}${after ?? ''}${SEP}${limit}${SEP}${throwOnError}${SEP}` +
+		`${channelId}${SEP}${before ?? ''}${SEP}${after ?? ''}${SEP}${limit}${SEP}${throwOnError}${SEP}${tailProbe}${SEP}` +
 		`${jump.present ? '1' : '0'}${SEP}${jump.messageId ?? ''}${SEP}${jump.offset ?? 0}${SEP}` +
 		`${jump.flash ? '1' : '0'}${SEP}${jump.returnToMessageId ?? ''}${SEP}` +
 		`${jump.returnChannelId ?? ''}${SEP}${jump.returnGuildId ?? ''}${SEP}${jump.jumpType ?? ''}`
@@ -244,6 +259,7 @@ function handleMessageFetchSuccess(
 	messages: Array<WireMessage>,
 	pageState: MessagePageState,
 	jump?: JumpOptions,
+	tailProbe?: TailProbeContext,
 ): void {
 	Messages.handleLoadMessagesSuccess({
 		channelId,
@@ -254,11 +270,13 @@ function handleMessageFetchSuccess(
 		hasMoreAfter: pageState.hasMoreAfter,
 		cached: false,
 		jump,
+		tailProbe: tailProbe != null,
 	});
 	ReadStates.handleLoadMessages({
 		channelId,
 		isAfter: pageState.isAfter,
 		messages,
+		tailProbeWatermarkId: tailProbe?.watermarkMessageId ?? null,
 	});
 	MessageReferences.handleMessagesFetchSuccess(channelId, messages);
 	void requestMissingGuildMembers(channelId, messages);
@@ -374,6 +392,30 @@ function applyMessageFetchCacheHit(
 	}
 }
 
+function isTailProbeApplicable(channelId: string, probe: TailProbeEpoch, after: string | null): boolean {
+	const current = Messages.getMessages(channelId);
+	const outcome = selectChannelMessagesTailProbeOutcome({
+		probeGeneration: probe.loadGeneration,
+		currentGeneration: current.loadGeneration,
+		probeJumpTicket: probe.jumpTicket,
+		currentJumpTicket: current.jumpTicket,
+		ready: current.ready,
+		hasMoreAfter: current.hasMoreAfter,
+		anchorMessageId: after,
+		newestLoadedMessageId: current.last()?.id ?? null,
+	});
+	if (outcome === 'apply') {
+		return true;
+	}
+	logger.debug(`Discarding tail probe for channel ${channelId} (${outcome})`);
+	Messages.handleTailProbeSettled({channelId});
+	return false;
+}
+
+function settleTailProbe(options: FetchMessagesOptions | undefined, settlement: TailProbeSettlement): void {
+	options?.tailProbe?.onSettled(settlement);
+}
+
 export async function fetchMessages(
 	channelId: string,
 	before: string | null,
@@ -392,13 +434,16 @@ export async function fetchMessages(
 	switch (preflightDecision.type) {
 		case 'useInFlightRequest':
 			logger.debug(`Using in-flight fetchMessages for channel ${channelId} (deduped)`);
+			settleTailProbe(options, 'retry');
 			return inFlight as Promise<Array<WireMessage>>;
 		case 'blockForGate':
 			logger.debug(`Skipping message fetch for gated channel ${channelId}`);
 			Messages.handleLoadMessagesBlocked({channelId});
+			settleTailProbe(options, 'retry');
 			return [];
 		case 'useCache':
 			applyMessageFetchCacheHit(channelId, preflightDecision.cacheHit, before, after, limit, jump);
+			settleTailProbe(options, 'retry');
 			return [];
 		case 'startFetch':
 			break;
@@ -409,19 +454,38 @@ export async function fetchMessages(
 			forceFailure: DeveloperOptions.forceFailMessageLoads,
 		});
 		if (executionDecision.type === 'simulateFailure') {
+			if (options?.tailProbe != null) {
+				settleTailProbe(options, 'failed');
+				return [];
+			}
 			return handleForcedMessageLoadFailure(channelId, jump);
 		}
-		Messages.handleLoadMessages({channelId, jump});
+		Messages.handleLoadMessages({channelId, jump, tailProbe: options?.tailProbe != null});
+		let probeEpoch: TailProbeEpoch | null = null;
+		if (options?.tailProbe) {
+			const started = Messages.getMessages(channelId);
+			probeEpoch = {loadGeneration: started.loadGeneration, jumpTicket: started.jumpTicket};
+		}
 		try {
 			const timeStart = Date.now();
 			logger.debug(`Fetching messages for channel ${channelId}`);
 			const messages = await requestChannelMessages(channelId, before, after, limit, jump);
+			if (probeEpoch != null && !isTailProbeApplicable(channelId, probeEpoch, after)) {
+				settleTailProbe(options, 'retry');
+				return [];
+			}
 			const pageState = calculateMessagePageState(channelId, before, after, limit, messages, jump);
 			logger.info(`Fetched ${messages.length} messages for channel ${channelId}, took ${Date.now() - timeStart}ms`);
-			handleMessageFetchSuccess(channelId, messages, pageState, jump);
+			handleMessageFetchSuccess(channelId, messages, pageState, jump, options?.tailProbe);
+			settleTailProbe(options, 'applied');
 			return messages;
 		} catch (error) {
 			logger.error(`Failed to fetch messages for channel ${channelId}:`, error);
+			if (probeEpoch != null) {
+				Messages.handleTailProbeSettled({channelId});
+				settleTailProbe(options, 'failed');
+				return [];
+			}
 			Messages.handleLoadMessagesFailure({channelId});
 			if (options?.throwOnError) {
 				throw error;
diff --git a/fluxer_app/src/features/messaging/state/ChannelMessages.ts b/fluxer_app/src/features/messaging/state/ChannelMessages.ts
index f0fa62350..587c2d146 100644
--- a/fluxer_app/src/features/messaging/state/ChannelMessages.ts
+++ b/fluxer_app/src/features/messaging/state/ChannelMessages.ts
@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ import {UploadingAttachment} from '@app/features/messaging/models/UploadingAttac
 import {resolveChannelIncomingMessageDecision} from '@app/features/messaging/state/ChannelIncomingMessageStateMachine';
 import {resolveChannelMessagesLoadDecision} from '@app/features/messaging/state/ChannelMessagesLoadStateMachine';
 import MessageReactions from '@app/features/messaging/state/MessageReactions';
+import {mergeAscendingById} from '@app/features/messaging/utils/MessagePaginationUtils';
 import SelectedChannel from '@app/features/navigation/state/SelectedChannel';
 import type {JumpType} from '@fluxer/constants/src/JumpConstants';
 import {JumpTypes} from '@fluxer/constants/src/JumpConstants';
@@ -48,6 +49,7 @@ interface LoadCompleteOptions {
 	hasMoreBefore?: boolean;
 	hasMoreAfter?: boolean;
 	cached?: boolean;
+	tailProbe?: boolean;
 }
 
 type MessageInput = Message | WireMessage;
@@ -281,6 +283,8 @@ class MessageBufferSegment {
 	}
 }
 
+let nextLoadGeneration = 0;
+
 export class ChannelMessages {
 	private static readonly channelCache = new Map<string, ChannelMessages>();
 	private static readonly maxChannelsInMemory = 50;
@@ -292,6 +296,8 @@ export class ChannelMessages {
 	jumpDestinationId: string | null = null;
 	jumpDestinationOffset = 0;
 	jumpTicket = 1;
+	loadGeneration = 0;
+	probeLoading = false;
 	hasJumped = false;
 	landedAtLiveEdge = false;
 	jumpHighlight = true;
@@ -605,9 +611,9 @@ export class ChannelMessages {
 		}, true);
 	}
 
-	merge(records: Array<Message>, prepend = false, clearBuffer = false): ChannelMessages {
+	merge(records: Array<Message>, prepend = false, clearBuffer = false, ordered = false): ChannelMessages {
 		return this.cloneAnd((draft) => {
-			draft.mergeInto(records, prepend, clearBuffer);
+			draft.mergeInto(records, prepend, clearBuffer, ordered);
 		}, true);
 	}
 
@@ -822,8 +828,18 @@ export class ChannelMessages {
 		return this.cloneAnd({ready: true, cached: true}).merge([hydrateMessage(this, wire, 'preserve')]);
 	}
 
+	beginProbeLoad(): ChannelMessages {
+		return this.cloneAnd({loadGeneration: ++nextLoadGeneration, probeLoading: true});
+	}
+
+	endProbeLoad(): ChannelMessages {
+		if (!this.probeLoading) return this;
+		return this.cloneAnd({probeLoading: false});
+	}
+
 	beginLoad(jump?: JumpOptions): ChannelMessages {
 		return this.cloneAnd({
+			loadGeneration: ++nextLoadGeneration,
 			loadingMore: true,
 			hasJumped: jump != null,
 			landedAtLiveEdge: jump?.present ?? false,
@@ -845,6 +861,7 @@ export class ChannelMessages {
 			hasMoreBefore = false,
 			hasMoreAfter = false,
 			cached = false,
+			tailProbe = false,
 		} = options;
 		const records = [...windowMessages].reverse().map((m) => hydrateMessage(this, m, 'empty'));
 		const loadDecision = resolveChannelMessagesLoadDecision({
@@ -862,26 +879,32 @@ export class ChannelMessages {
 				next = next.merge(unsent);
 			}
 		} else {
-			next = this.merge(records, loadDecision.prepend, true);
-			if (loadDecision.trimBottom) {
+			next = this.merge(records, loadDecision.prepend, true, true);
+			if (!tailProbe && loadDecision.trimBottom) {
 				next = next.trimToWindow(true, false);
-			} else if (loadDecision.trimTop) {
+			} else if (!tailProbe && loadDecision.trimTop) {
 				next = next.trimToWindow(false, true);
 			}
 		}
+		const jumpPatch = tailProbe
+			? {}
+			: {
+					jumpType: jump?.jumpType ?? JumpTypes.ANIMATED,
+					jumpHighlight: jump?.flash ?? false,
+					hasJumped: jump != null,
+					landedAtLiveEdge: jump?.present ?? false,
+					jumpDestinationId: jump?.messageId ?? null,
+					jumpDestinationOffset: jump && jump.messageId != null && jump.offset != null ? jump.offset : 0,
+					jumpTicket: jump ? next.jumpTicket + 1 : next.jumpTicket,
+					jumpReturnMessageId: jump?.returnToMessageId ?? null,
+					jumpReturnChannelId: jump?.returnToMessageId ? (jump.returnChannelId ?? this.channelId) : null,
+					jumpReturnGuildId: jump?.returnToMessageId ? (jump.returnGuildId ?? null) : null,
+				};
 		next = next.cloneAnd({
 			ready: true,
 			loadingMore: false,
-			jumpType: jump?.jumpType ?? JumpTypes.ANIMATED,
-			jumpHighlight: jump?.flash ?? false,
-			hasJumped: jump != null,
-			landedAtLiveEdge: jump?.present ?? false,
-			jumpDestinationId: jump?.messageId ?? null,
-			jumpDestinationOffset: jump && jump.messageId != null && jump.offset != null ? jump.offset : 0,
-			jumpTicket: jump ? next.jumpTicket + 1 : next.jumpTicket,
-			jumpReturnMessageId: jump?.returnToMessageId ?? null,
-			jumpReturnChannelId: jump?.returnToMessageId ? (jump.returnChannelId ?? this.channelId) : null,
-			jumpReturnGuildId: jump?.returnToMessageId ? (jump.returnGuildId ?? null) : null,
+			probeLoading: false,
+			...jumpPatch,
 			hasMoreBefore: loadDecision.preserveHasMoreBefore ? next.hasMoreBefore : hasMoreBefore,
 			hasMoreAfter: loadDecision.preserveHasMoreAfter ? next.hasMoreAfter : hasMoreAfter,
 			cached,
@@ -914,7 +937,7 @@ export class ChannelMessages {
 		this.messageIndex = {};
 	}
 
-	private mergeInto(incoming: Array<Message>, prepend = false, clearSideBuffer = false): void {
+	private mergeInto(incoming: Array<Message>, prepend = false, clearSideBuffer = false, ordered = false): void {
 		const newItems: Array<Message> = [];
 		for (const msg of incoming) {
 			const existing = this.messageIndex[msg.id];
@@ -937,7 +960,11 @@ export class ChannelMessages {
 			buffer.clear();
 		}
 		if (newItems.length === 0) return;
-		this.messageList = prepend ? newItems.concat(this.messageList) : this.messageList.concat(newItems);
+		if (prepend) {
+			this.messageList = newItems.concat(this.messageList);
+			return;
+		}
+		this.messageList = ordered ? mergeAscendingById(this.messageList, newItems) : this.messageList.concat(newItems);
 	}
 
 	private cloneAnd(
@@ -956,6 +983,8 @@ export class ChannelMessages {
 			clone.jumpDestinationId = this.jumpDestinationId;
 			clone.jumpDestinationOffset = this.jumpDestinationOffset;
 			clone.jumpTicket = this.jumpTicket;
+			clone.loadGeneration = this.loadGeneration;
+			clone.probeLoading = this.probeLoading;
 			clone.hasJumped = this.hasJumped;
 			clone.landedAtLiveEdge = this.landedAtLiveEdge;
 			clone.jumpHighlight = this.jumpHighlight;
@@ -978,6 +1007,8 @@ export class ChannelMessages {
 			clone.jumpDestinationOffset =
 				patch.jumpDestinationOffset !== undefined ? patch.jumpDestinationOffset : this.jumpDestinationOffset;
 			clone.jumpTicket = patch.jumpTicket !== undefined ? patch.jumpTicket : this.jumpTicket;
+			clone.loadGeneration = patch.loadGeneration !== undefined ? patch.loadGeneration : this.loadGeneration;
+			clone.probeLoading = 'probeLoading' in patch ? !!patch.probeLoading : this.probeLoading;
 			clone.hasJumped = 'hasJumped' in patch ? !!patch.hasJumped : this.hasJumped;
 			clone.landedAtLiveEdge = 'landedAtLiveEdge' in patch ? !!patch.landedAtLiveEdge : this.landedAtLiveEdge;
 			clone.jumpHighlight = 'jumpHighlight' in patch ? !!patch.jumpHighlight : this.jumpHighlight;
diff --git a/fluxer_app/src/features/messaging/state/ChannelMessagesLoadStateMachine.test.ts b/fluxer_app/src/features/messaging/state/ChannelMessagesLoadStateMachine.test.ts
index 1fe9341c3..f620cfd3d 100644
--- a/fluxer_app/src/features/messaging/state/ChannelMessagesLoadStateMachine.test.ts
+++ b/fluxer_app/src/features/messaging/state/ChannelMessagesLoadStateMachine.test.ts
@@ -12,6 +12,9 @@ import {
 	selectChannelMessagesFillerVisible,
 	selectChannelMessagesLoadDecision,
 	selectChannelMessagesSpacerHeight,
+	selectChannelMessagesTailGapId,
+	selectChannelMessagesTailProbeId,
+	selectChannelMessagesTailProbeOutcome,
 	selectChannelMessagesWindowBar,
 	selectChannelMessagesWindowStatus,
 	transitionChannelMessagesLoadSnapshot,
@@ -389,3 +392,129 @@ describe('selectChannelMessagesFillerVisible', () => {
 		expect(streamCases).toBeGreaterThan(0);
 	});
 });
+
+describe('selectChannelMessagesTailProbeId', () => {
+	const ID = {older: '1519773906704011264', newer: '1519773906708205568'};
+
+	function tailInput(
+		overrides: Partial<ChannelMessagesWindowInput> = {},
+		tail: {
+			loading?: boolean;
+			newestLoadedMessageId?: string | null;
+			knownLatestMessageId?: string | null;
+		} = {},
+	) {
+		const windowInput: ChannelMessagesWindowInput = {
+			ready: true,
+			loading: false,
+			failed: false,
+			messageCount: 12,
+			hasMoreBefore: true,
+			hasMoreAfter: false,
+			...overrides,
+		};
+		return {
+			status: resolveChannelMessagesWindowStatus(windowInput),
+			loading: tail.loading ?? windowInput.loading,
+			newestLoadedMessageId: tail.newestLoadedMessageId === undefined ? ID.older : tail.newestLoadedMessageId,
+			knownLatestMessageId: tail.knownLatestMessageId === undefined ? ID.newer : tail.knownLatestMessageId,
+		};
+	}
+
+	it('probes from the newest loaded message when the live edge is known to be ahead', () => {
+		expect(selectChannelMessagesTailProbeId(tailInput())).toBe(ID.older);
+	});
+
+	it('stays silent for a window that already advertises a newer page', () => {
+		expect(selectChannelMessagesTailProbeId(tailInput({hasMoreAfter: true}))).toBeNull();
+	});
+
+	it('stays silent for a failed window so a failed probe cannot re-arm itself', () => {
+		expect(selectChannelMessagesTailProbeId(tailInput({failed: true}))).toBeNull();
+	});
+
+	it('stays silent while a load is in flight', () => {
+		expect(selectChannelMessagesTailProbeId(tailInput({loading: true}))).toBeNull();
+	});
+
+	it('stays silent for a window that has not loaded a page yet', () => {
+		expect(selectChannelMessagesTailProbeId(tailInput({ready: false}))).toBeNull();
+	});
+
+	it('never probes an empty window, so a channel with no readable history cannot arm it', () => {
+		expect(
+			selectChannelMessagesTailProbeId(
+				tailInput({messageCount: 0, hasMoreBefore: false}, {newestLoadedMessageId: null}),
+			),
+		).toBeNull();
+	});
+
+	it('stays silent when the watermark matches or trails the newest loaded message', () => {
+		expect(selectChannelMessagesTailProbeId(tailInput({}, {knownLatestMessageId: ID.older}))).toBeNull();
+		expect(
+			selectChannelMessagesTailProbeId(
+				tailInput({}, {newestLoadedMessageId: ID.newer, knownLatestMessageId: ID.older}),
+			),
+		).toBeNull();
+		expect(selectChannelMessagesTailProbeId(tailInput({}, {knownLatestMessageId: null}))).toBeNull();
+	});
+
+	it('keeps reporting the tail gap while the probe it armed is in flight', () => {
+		const inFlight = tailInput({loading: true});
+		expect(selectChannelMessagesTailProbeId(inFlight)).toBeNull();
+		expect(selectChannelMessagesTailGapId(inFlight)).toBe(ID.older);
+	});
+
+	it('reports no tail gap once the newest loaded message reaches the watermark', () => {
+		expect(selectChannelMessagesTailGapId(tailInput({}, {newestLoadedMessageId: ID.newer}))).toBeNull();
+	});
+
+	it('still reports the gap on a deep window so auto-ack cannot run past it', () => {
+		expect(selectChannelMessagesTailGapId(tailInput({messageCount: 200}))).toBe(ID.older);
+		expect(selectChannelMessagesTailProbeId(tailInput({messageCount: 200}))).toBe(ID.older);
+	});
+});
+
+describe('selectChannelMessagesTailProbeOutcome', () => {
+	const ID = {older: '1519773906704011264', newer: '1519773906708205568'};
+
+	function outcomeInput(overrides: Partial<Parameters<typeof selectChannelMessagesTailProbeOutcome>[0]> = {}) {
+		return {
+			probeGeneration: 4,
+			currentGeneration: 4,
+			probeJumpTicket: 2,
+			currentJumpTicket: 2,
+			ready: true,
+			hasMoreAfter: false,
+			anchorMessageId: ID.older,
+			newestLoadedMessageId: ID.older,
+			...overrides,
+		};
+	}
+
+	it('applies a probe onto the window it was issued against', () => {
+		expect(selectChannelMessagesTailProbeOutcome(outcomeInput())).toBe('apply');
+	});
+
+	it('discards without touching shared state once another load owns the window', () => {
+		expect(selectChannelMessagesTailProbeOutcome(outcomeInput({currentGeneration: 5}))).toBe('discard');
+	});
+
+	it('releases a probe whose window a jump has taken out of the ready state', () => {
+		expect(selectChannelMessagesTailProbeOutcome(outcomeInput({ready: false}))).toBe('release');
+		expect(selectChannelMessagesTailProbeOutcome(outcomeInput({currentGeneration: 9, ready: false}))).toBe('discard');
+	});
+
+	it('releases a probe whose tail moved under it', () => {
+		expect(selectChannelMessagesTailProbeOutcome(outcomeInput({newestLoadedMessageId: ID.newer}))).toBe('release');
+		expect(selectChannelMessagesTailProbeOutcome(outcomeInput({newestLoadedMessageId: null}))).toBe('release');
+	});
+
+	it('releases a probe whose window started advertising a newer page', () => {
+		expect(selectChannelMessagesTailProbeOutcome(outcomeInput({hasMoreAfter: true}))).toBe('release');
+	});
+
+	it('discards a probe whose window a cached jump took over without starting a load', () => {
+		expect(selectChannelMessagesTailProbeOutcome(outcomeInput({currentJumpTicket: 3}))).toBe('discard');
+	});
+});
diff --git a/fluxer_app/src/features/messaging/state/ChannelMessagesLoadStateMachine.ts b/fluxer_app/src/features/messaging/state/ChannelMessagesLoadStateMachine.ts
index 8e659662e..b39de4c42 100644
--- a/fluxer_app/src/features/messaging/state/ChannelMessagesLoadStateMachine.ts
+++ b/fluxer_app/src/features/messaging/state/ChannelMessagesLoadStateMachine.ts
@@ -1,5 +1,6 @@
 // SPDX-License-Identifier: AGPL-3.0-or-later
 
+import {compare as compareSnowflakes} from '@fluxer/snowflake/src/SnowflakeUtils';
 import {assign, getInitialSnapshot, type SnapshotFrom, setup, transition} from 'xstate';
 
 export interface ChannelMessagesLoadInput {
@@ -281,6 +282,47 @@ export function selectChannelMessagesSpacerHeight(status: ChannelMessagesWindowS
 	return status.olderPageAvailable || status.newerPageAvailable ? fillerHeight : 0;
 }
 
+export interface ChannelMessagesTailInput {
+	status: ChannelMessagesWindowStatus;
+	loading: boolean;
+	newestLoadedMessageId: string | null;
+	knownLatestMessageId: string | null;
+}
+
+export function selectChannelMessagesTailGapId(input: ChannelMessagesTailInput): string | null {
+	if (input.status.phase !== 'stream' || input.status.retryVisible || input.status.newerPageAvailable) return null;
+	if (input.newestLoadedMessageId == null || input.knownLatestMessageId == null) return null;
+	if (compareSnowflakes(input.knownLatestMessageId, input.newestLoadedMessageId) <= 0) return null;
+	return input.newestLoadedMessageId;
+}
+
+export function selectChannelMessagesTailProbeId(input: ChannelMessagesTailInput): string | null {
+	if (input.loading) return null;
+	return selectChannelMessagesTailGapId(input);
+}
+
+export interface ChannelMessagesTailProbeResultInput {
+	probeGeneration: number;
+	currentGeneration: number;
+	probeJumpTicket: number;
+	currentJumpTicket: number;
+	ready: boolean;
+	hasMoreAfter: boolean;
+	anchorMessageId: string | null;
+	newestLoadedMessageId: string | null;
+}
+
+export type ChannelMessagesTailProbeOutcome = 'apply' | 'release' | 'discard';
+
+export function selectChannelMessagesTailProbeOutcome(
+	input: ChannelMessagesTailProbeResultInput,
+): ChannelMessagesTailProbeOutcome {
+	if (input.currentGeneration !== input.probeGeneration) return 'discard';
+	if (input.currentJumpTicket !== input.probeJumpTicket) return 'discard';
+	if (!input.ready || input.hasMoreAfter || input.newestLoadedMessageId !== input.anchorMessageId) return 'release';
+	return 'apply';
+}
+
 export function selectChannelMessagesWindowBar(status: ChannelMessagesWindowStatus): ChannelMessagesWindowBar {
 	if (status.phase === 'placeholder') return 'none';
 	if (status.phase === 'retry' || status.retryVisible) return 'retry';
diff --git a/fluxer_app/src/features/messaging/state/MessagingMessages.ts b/fluxer_app/src/features/messaging/state/MessagingMessages.ts
index 3bf72ab12..8e7216e93 100644
--- a/fluxer_app/src/features/messaging/state/MessagingMessages.ts
+++ b/fluxer_app/src/features/messaging/state/MessagingMessages.ts
@@ -449,9 +449,9 @@ class Messages {
 	}
 
 	@action
-	handleLoadMessages(action: {channelId: string; jump?: JumpOptions}): boolean {
+	handleLoadMessages(action: {channelId: string; jump?: JumpOptions; tailProbe?: boolean}): boolean {
 		const messages = ChannelMessages.getOrCreate(action.channelId);
-		this.commitMessages(messages.beginLoad(action.jump));
+		this.commitMessages(action.tailProbe ? messages.beginProbeLoad() : messages.beginLoad(action.jump));
 		this.notifyChange();
 		return false;
 	}
@@ -505,6 +505,7 @@ class Messages {
 		hasMoreBefore?: boolean;
 		hasMoreAfter?: boolean;
 		cached?: boolean;
+		tailProbe?: boolean;
 		messages: Array<WireMessage>;
 	}): boolean {
 		const messages = ChannelMessages.getOrCreate(action.channelId).applyLoadedWindow({
@@ -515,6 +516,7 @@ class Messages {
 			hasMoreBefore: action.hasMoreBefore,
 			hasMoreAfter: action.hasMoreAfter,
 			cached: action.cached,
+			tailProbe: action.tailProbe,
 		});
 		this.commitMessages(messages);
 		this.notifyChange();
@@ -529,6 +531,15 @@ class Messages {
 		return false;
 	}
 
+	@action
+	handleTailProbeSettled(action: {channelId: string}): boolean {
+		const messages = ChannelMessages.get(action.channelId);
+		if (!messages?.probeLoading) return false;
+		this.commitMessages(messages.endProbeLoad());
+		this.notifyChange();
+		return true;
+	}
+
 	@action
 	handleLoadMessagesBlocked(action: {channelId: string}): boolean {
 		const messages = ChannelMessages.getOrCreate(action.channelId);
diff --git a/fluxer_app/src/features/messaging/utils/MessagePaginationUtils.test.ts b/fluxer_app/src/features/messaging/utils/MessagePaginationUtils.test.ts
index 87e7b4590..416ae455a 100644
--- a/fluxer_app/src/features/messaging/utils/MessagePaginationUtils.test.ts
+++ b/fluxer_app/src/features/messaging/utils/MessagePaginationUtils.test.ts
@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 // SPDX-License-Identifier: AGPL-3.0-or-later
 
 import {describe, expect, it} from 'vitest';
-import {calculateAroundPaginationState, getAroundWindowCounts} from './MessagePaginationUtils';
+import {calculateAroundPaginationState, getAroundWindowCounts, mergeAscendingById} from './MessagePaginationUtils';
 
 describe('MessagePaginationUtils', () => {
 	it('splits around windows with the newer side receiving the extra item for even limits', () => {
@@ -42,3 +42,30 @@ describe('MessagePaginationUtils', () => {
 		expect(state.hasMoreAfter).toBe(false);
 	});
 });
+
+describe('mergeAscendingById', () => {
+	const ID = {a: '1519773906704011264', b: '1519773906708205568', c: '1519773906712399872'};
+
+	it('appends when every incoming message is newer than the tail', () => {
+		const existing = [{id: ID.a}];
+		expect(mergeAscendingById(existing, [{id: ID.b}, {id: ID.c}])).toEqual([{id: ID.a}, {id: ID.b}, {id: ID.c}]);
+	});
+
+	it('returns the existing list untouched for an empty page', () => {
+		const existing = [{id: ID.a}];
+		expect(mergeAscendingById(existing, [])).toBe(existing);
+	});
+
+	it('interleaves a recovered message that is older than a live message already at the tail', () => {
+		expect(mergeAscendingById([{id: ID.a}, {id: ID.c}], [{id: ID.b}])).toEqual([{id: ID.a}, {id: ID.b}, {id: ID.c}]);
+	});
+
+	it('keeps the whole page in order when it spans a live message already at the tail', () => {
+		expect(mergeAscendingById([{id: ID.a}, {id: ID.b}], [{id: ID.c}])).toEqual([{id: ID.a}, {id: ID.b}, {id: ID.c}]);
+		expect(mergeAscendingById([{id: ID.b}], [{id: ID.a}, {id: ID.c}])).toEqual([{id: ID.a}, {id: ID.b}, {id: ID.c}]);
+	});
+
+	it('appends onto an empty window', () => {
+		expect(mergeAscendingById([], [{id: ID.a}])).toEqual([{id: ID.a}]);
+	});
+});
diff --git a/fluxer_app/src/features/messaging/utils/MessagePaginationUtils.ts b/fluxer_app/src/features/messaging/utils/MessagePaginationUtils.ts
index 0e7a43e55..91bff5e50 100644
--- a/fluxer_app/src/features/messaging/utils/MessagePaginationUtils.ts
+++ b/fluxer_app/src/features/messaging/utils/MessagePaginationUtils.ts
@@ -1,5 +1,7 @@
 // SPDX-License-Identifier: AGPL-3.0-or-later
 
+import {compare as compareSnowflakes} from '@fluxer/snowflake/src/SnowflakeUtils';
+
 export interface AroundWindowCounts {
 	newer: number;
 	older: number;
@@ -49,3 +51,32 @@ export function calculateAroundPaginationState(input: AroundPaginationStateInput
 		isAtKnownLatest,
 	};
 }
+
+export function mergeAscendingById<T extends {id: string}>(existing: Array<T>, incoming: Array<T>): Array<T> {
+	if (incoming.length === 0) return existing;
+	const tail = existing[existing.length - 1];
+	if (tail == null || compareSnowflakes(incoming[0].id, tail.id) > 0) {
+		return existing.concat(incoming);
+	}
+	const merged: Array<T> = [];
+	let left = 0;
+	let right = 0;
+	while (left < existing.length && right < incoming.length) {
+		if (compareSnowflakes(incoming[right].id, existing[left].id) < 0) {
+			merged.push(incoming[right]);
+			right += 1;
+		} else {
+			merged.push(existing[left]);
+			left += 1;
+		}
+	}
+	while (left < existing.length) {
+		merged.push(existing[left]);
+		left += 1;
+	}
+	while (right < incoming.length) {
+		merged.push(incoming[right]);
+		right += 1;
+	}
+	return merged;
+}
diff --git a/fluxer_app/src/features/read_state/state/ReadStates.test.ts b/fluxer_app/src/features/read_state/state/ReadStates.test.ts
index c0d77b908..79c9699a9 100644
--- a/fluxer_app/src/features/read_state/state/ReadStates.test.ts
+++ b/fluxer_app/src/features/read_state/state/ReadStates.test.ts
@@ -102,6 +102,48 @@ describe('ReadStates unread invariant', () => {
 		expect(ReadStates.getVisualUnreadMessageId(channelId)).toBeNull();
 	});
 
+	it('lowers a watermark its own probe finds nothing behind', () => {
+		const {channelId, state} = seedReadChannel();
+		state.lastMessageId = ID.newer;
+		loadedMessages.push({id: ID.ack, author: {id: 'someone'}});
+		ReadStates.handleLoadMessages({channelId, isAfter: true, messages: [], tailProbeWatermarkId: ID.newer});
+		expect(ReadStates.lastMessageId(channelId)).toBe(ID.ack);
+		expect(ReadStates.hasUnread(channelId)).toBe(false);
+	});
+
+	it('keeps a watermark that is ahead when an ordinary after page comes back empty', () => {
+		const {channelId, state} = seedReadChannel();
+		state.lastMessageId = ID.newer;
+		loadedMessages.push({id: ID.ack, author: {id: 'someone'}});
+		ReadStates.handleLoadMessages({channelId, isAfter: true, messages: []});
+		expect(ReadStates.lastMessageId(channelId)).toBe(ID.newer);
+	});
+
+	it('keeps a watermark that advanced while its own probe was in flight', () => {
+		const {channelId, state} = seedReadChannel();
+		state.lastMessageId = ID.newer;
+		loadedMessages.push({id: ID.ack, author: {id: 'someone'}});
+		ReadStates.handleLoadMessages({channelId, isAfter: true, messages: [], tailProbeWatermarkId: ID.ack});
+		expect(ReadStates.lastMessageId(channelId)).toBe(ID.newer);
+	});
+
+	it('keeps a watermark that is ahead when the page was not an after page', () => {
+		const {channelId, state} = seedReadChannel();
+		state.lastMessageId = ID.newer;
+		loadedMessages.push({id: ID.ack, author: {id: 'someone'}});
+		ReadStates.handleLoadMessages({channelId, messages: [], tailProbeWatermarkId: ID.newer});
+		expect(ReadStates.lastMessageId(channelId)).toBe(ID.newer);
+	});
+
+	it('keeps a watermark that is ahead when the window is not at the live edge', () => {
+		const {channelId, state} = seedReadChannel();
+		hasNewestMessages = false;
+		state.lastMessageId = ID.newer;
+		loadedMessages.push({id: ID.ack, author: {id: 'someone'}});
+		ReadStates.handleLoadMessages({channelId, isAfter: true, messages: [], tailProbeWatermarkId: ID.newer});
+		expect(ReadStates.lastMessageId(channelId)).toBe(ID.newer);
+	});
+
 	it('anchors the divider when a window is loaded whose ack sits outside it', () => {
 		const {channelId, state} = seedReadChannel();
 		state.lastMessageId = ID.newer;
diff --git a/fluxer_app/src/features/read_state/state/ReadStates.ts b/fluxer_app/src/features/read_state/state/ReadStates.ts
index f9288e1d7..825a5932a 100644
--- a/fluxer_app/src/features/read_state/state/ReadStates.ts
+++ b/fluxer_app/src/features/read_state/state/ReadStates.ts
@@ -439,7 +439,12 @@ class ReadStates {
 		});
 	}
 
-	handleLoadMessages(action: {channelId: string; isAfter?: boolean; messages: Array<WireMessage>}): void {
+	handleLoadMessages(action: {
+		channelId: string;
+		isAfter?: boolean;
+		messages: Array<WireMessage>;
+		tailProbeWatermarkId?: string | null;
+	}): void {
 		const state = this.get(action.channelId);
 		state.messagesLoaded = true;
 		const messages = Messages.getMessages(action.channelId);
@@ -448,6 +453,17 @@ class ReadStates {
 			state.lastMessageId = newestMessage.id;
 		}
 		const landedOnNewestWindow = messages.hasNewestMessages();
+		if (
+			action.isAfter &&
+			action.tailProbeWatermarkId != null &&
+			action.tailProbeWatermarkId === state.lastMessageId &&
+			action.messages.length === 0 &&
+			landedOnNewestWindow &&
+			newestMessage != null &&
+			isNewerMessageId(state.lastMessageId, newestMessage.id)
+		) {
+			state.lastMessageId = newestMessage.id;
+		}
 		const landedOnAck = state.ackMessageId != null && messages.jumpDestinationId === state.ackMessageId;
 		if (state.hasUnread() || landedOnNewestWindow || landedOnAck) {
 			state.rebuild();